Michigan Hockey: Wolverines Face Critical Matchup With Minnesota

Michigan’s 8:30pm puck drop tonight at Minnesota represents the most important game for the hockey program since last year’s Big Ten Tournament final (which it lost to miss out on the NCAAs) and, arguably, the biggest regular-season series since U-M swept Northern Michigan to win the CCHA title in the final conference weekend of the 2010-11 campaign.

“Minnesota is a huge weekend for us -- it will define our season,” sophomore defenseman-turned-forward Cutler Martin said. “We know that this is our season. Something we have to be ready for. We can’t wait until the puck drops.”

Michigan enters tonight’s and tomorrow night’s games at the Mariucci Arena (live on Big Ten Network at 8:30 and then 9pm) ranked sixth in the Pairwise Rankings, well ahead of No. 16 Minnesota, but one point back of the Golden Gophers in the league standings (33 to 32).

Minnesota has the easier schedule going forward, playing Michigan State and Wisconsin teams that have a combined .267 winning percentage in conference play while the Maize and Blue face Ohio State and Penn State teams with a .483 winning percentage.

If Michigan falls further behind the Maroon and Gold this week, or even if U-M emerges in the same spot as it is today after a two-game split, it won’t likely catch Minnesota, and would fail to win a conference crown for the fifth straight season and third year since the creation of the Big Ten in 2013-14.

“One of our goals is to finish first in the Big Ten, and there have been different reasons why we haven’t [the past two years],” head coach Red Berenson said. “And one of our goals is to get a bye in the playoffs, and win the playoffs, and then get in the NCAA Tournament and advance.

“We don’t have to remind our team what we have or haven’t accomplished. They know. They know the next six games are instrumental to how we move forward.”

Michigan is just one of three teams nationally with fewer than five losses. The Wolverines are ranked sixth in both major polls, and are almost a lock to make NCAAs regardless of this week’s action, but there is deserving skepticism about this team, many unwilling to buy in completely that the ills that have haunted this program for three seasons without titles and NCAA berths are gone.

Michigan leads the country in goal scoring, averaging 4.79 goals per game. Its top line of freshman left wing Kyle Connor (1.82 points per game), junior center JT Compher (1.61) and junior right wing Tyler Motte (1.57) are the top three point producers in college hockey -- Motte also leads the nation in goals with 28.

Perhaps most convincingly, the Maize and Blue are 6-2-0 against teams currently ranked in the top 20 of the Pairwise Rankings.

This team scores at a rate unseen in Ann Arbor since 1996-97, and is fun to watch, but the Wolverines are also leaking goals at an alarming rate, ranking 36th nationally in allowing 2.96 goals per game.

There have been enough unexpectedly poor performances – a 4-0 shutout loss to Robert Morris; 6-6 and 4-4 ties to a Wisconsin team that averages 2.57 goals per game and has won just six contests this season; a 5-5 tie at Ohio State; and a 3-2 overtime loss to feeble Michigan State – to cause doubts.

“They’re 19-4 and have solidified their NCAA berth, for the most part, but the flipside is the Big Ten is not very good and they haven’t really had that signature weekend where they’ve beaten a good team twice and really instilled confidence that they’re a great team,” former goalie and current TheWolverine.com analyst Noah Ruden said.

“This is their opportunity to have a great weekend at Minnesota, and then you’re not only 100 percent punching your ticket for the NCAA Tournament, which would certainly be so nice to get that out of the way considering the past three years, but a sweep validates this team and its potential in the postseason.”

Michigan has not won in Minneapolis since a College Hockey Showcase game in Nov. 2008, losing five straight to Minnesota at Mariucci, including all four Big Ten meetings.

A year ago, Michigan went into its series at Minnesota in first place in the conference with 24 points but left with its tail between its legs, falling 6-2 and 2-0 Feb. 13-14, and wound up finishing third. Had U-M salvaged a split, it would have tied the Golden Gophers for the Big Ten regular-season championship.

The Wolverines simply cannot afford anything less than three points and they need four or more to assume the driver’s seat in the Big Ten race.

“Everyone knows how big this weekend is and the implications associated with it,” senior forward Justin Selman said. “A big goal for us at the start of the year was to control our own destiny going into March and getting four or five points … we’re looking to get all six.”

Michigan could still make the NCAA Tournament without winning in Minnesota, could still go on a postseason run – in three of its last 11 Frozen Four appearances, U-M did not win the conference regular-season or tournament titles – but the Wolverines have a chance to send a ripple through the rest of the college hockey world, energize its fan base and galvanize the locker room with the confidence necessary for its NCAA pursuits.

“It’s gut-check time. We’re going to find out what kind of team Michigan is this weekend,” former player and current radio analyst Bill Trainor said.

“Even though we’re still in the regular season, you have to have a playoff mindset going forward. How does Michigan defend? Can they win close tight-checking games? You won’t see these 8-6 games anymore. This time of the year the focus is on playing well defensively.

“Michigan has been getting by with offense and outscoring opponents. Will that carry the day down the stretch? This weekend will be telling. Can they shut down an offensive team? Can they win on a road? Can they win in a tough environment?

“And can they win big games they will need to in the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA, if they make it?

“This is the weekend we will find out.”

How will Michigan fare this weekend? I have Michigan splitting, what do you think?